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Public Ledger

Annual statement for 2025-26, based on the ONS outturn, September 2026 releaseEarly version: cards checked by AI Journalist, human review to come

Where £1,366bn of public money went, and where it came from

Taxes and other income covered £1,231bn. The other £134bn was borrowed, so every new promise either takes money from somewhere else or adds to that line.

Income
£1,231bnSourcedTaken from an official release, linked.ONS Public sector finances, UK (PUSF time series dataset)
taxes and other receipts
Spending
£1,366bnSourcedTaken from an official release, linked.ONS Public sector finances, UK (PUSF time series dataset)
all public spending
Borrowed
£134bnSourcedTotal spending minus receipts (PSF-2026-09). Published borrowing for 2025-26: 134.3bn.ONS Public sector finances, UK (PUSF time series dataset)
9.8p of every £1 spent
Debt
£2.9tnSourcedPSND ex, £bn: end-March 2026 value of ONS CDID HF6W.ONS Public sector finances, UK (PUSF time series dataset)
93.3% of GDP in 2025-26
Debt interest
£109bnEstimateCentral government debt interest net of the APF (OBR definition): ONS CG interest payable (NMFX, 96.8bn) minus APF net interest receivable (MDD8, -11.8bn), summed April 2025 to March 2026.ONS Public sector finances, UK (PUSF time series dataset)
8.0p of every £1 spent
Bank Rate
3.75%SourcedTaken from an official release, linked.Official Bank Rate (IADB series IUDBEDR) and MPC dates
since 18 Dec 2025

The statement

Income on the left, spending on the right. The hatched band is borrowing. Move any lever and the flows redraw.

Outturn
IncomeBorrowing and debt interestSpending

Where it came from

  • Income tax£329bn
  • National Insurance£204bn
  • VAT£180bn
  • Corporation tax£100bn
  • Council tax£50.4bn
  • Business rates£30.3bn
  • Fuel duty£24.6bn
  • Capital gains tax£24.3bn
  • Stamp duties£21.4bn
  • Alcohol & tobacco£19.9bn
  • Inheritance tax£8.5bn
  • Non-tax income£129bn
  • Other taxes£109bn
  • Borrowing£134bn
Total spending£1,366bn

Where it went

  • Social protection£407bn
  • Health£258bn
  • Education£126bn
  • Debt interest£109bn
  • Transport & economy£94bn
  • Defence£65.4bn
  • Police, courts, prisons£55.7bn
  • Housing & environment£41.6bn
  • Running government£35bn
  • Culture & sport£15.1bn
  • Accounting adjustments£160bn
SourcedTotals, borrowing and debt interest: ONS Public sector finances, UK (PUSF time series dataset).EstimateAccounting adjustments reconcile spending by function with total spending.
Your scenario against today, year one

No changes yet

Borrowing, per year
£0bn
no change
Per household, per year
£0
no change
29m householdsSourcedSourcedONS Families and households, UK, 2025 (FH-2026-04).ONS Families and households in the UK
Prices (CPI), one-off
0.0pp
no change
Bank of England estimateEstimateOne-off rise in the CPI level per 1 point on the standard rate of VAT. The Bank of England estimated that the January 2011 rise from 17.5% to 20% added 0.7, about 1 and 1.4 percentage points to CPI inflation if half, three quarters (its central case) or all of it reached prices; divided by the 2.5-point rise, that is 0.28 (low), 0.40 (central) and 0.56 (high). VAT applies to around two thirds of the CPI basket. The ONS measured about 0.76 points for the same rise (0.30 per point) in the month it took effect. The effect drops out of annual inflation after about 12 months.Bank of England: Inflation Report, February 2012, section 4 (the effect of the January 2011 VAT rise on CPI)
GDP, year one
0.00%
no change
OBR multipliersEstimateOBR first-year fiscal multipliers: a change worth 1% of GDP moves real GDP by 0.45% for day-to-day public services, 0.6% for welfare and 1% for investment (October 2024 EFO, FOI table 1.1), so spending runs from 0.45 (low) through 0.6 (central) to 1.0 (high). Tax: 0.33 in the OBR's current single multiplier (central), and 0.3 for income tax and National Insurance and 0.35 for VAT in its earlier published framework (low and high; OBR fiscal multipliers box). The sandbox applies one spending and one tax multiplier to every lever, so the result is an approximation; the OBR also tapers multipliers to zero over five years. Year-1 GDP effect = (spending multiplier × Δ non-interest spending − tax multiplier × Δ tax) / GDP.OBR: Fiscal multipliers used in the October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook (FOI reply, 3 Dec 2024), table 1.1

Public debt, % of GDP. Dashed: the OBR forecast. Solid: your scenario, with its low–high band.

92%94%96%98%25/2626/2727/2828/2929/3030/3195.1%

What moved

  • Move a lever or pick a proposal. Every result shows a low–high range.

Your share of the bill

Income tax and National Insurance on a salary, under today's rates or your scenario, split the way the state spends it.

Stays on this device. We never see it.
Income tax
£5,086
National Insurance
£2,034
You pay a year
£7,120

Excludes VAT, council tax and other taxes you also pay. Rates for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2026-27.SourcedSourcedGOV.UK 'Income Tax rates and Personal Allowances' and HMRC 'Rates and thresholds for employers' for 2026-27. The allowance falls by £1 for every £2 above the taper threshold, as GOV.UK states. National Insurance rates apply across the UK; Scotland sets its own income tax bands.

  • Social protection£2,124
  • Health£1,343
  • Accounting adjustments£832
  • Education£656
  • Debt interest£566
  • Transport & economy£490
  • Defence£341
  • Police, courts, prisons£291
  • Housing & environment£217
  • Running government£183
  • Culture & sport£78
  • Plus borrowing on top£777

People like me

How your scenario changes the income of an example household, worked out by PolicyEngine. Your choices stay on this device.

Move a tax or benefit lever in the sandbox, such as VAT or income tax, then choose “Show who gains and loses” under your scenario. Go to the sandbox

Promise ledger

Every promise gets a card: what, who, how much, from where, and a timeline that ends in delivery or in silence.

45 of 45 cards awaiting editor check

Autumn Budget 2026 on 28 October: the promises it could fund or break

See all 45 promises, with search and filters

Track record

How each party's promises stand, counted from the cards. No scores: the mix speaks for itself.

Promises by party and status
PartyCardsDeliveredIn progressNot metUndoneUnscoreableNet cost of costed cards, a yearFunding namedMix
Labour Party22418000+£56.4bn12 of 22
HM Government808000+£0.12bn6 of 8
Conservative Party404000+£16.7bn3 of 4
Green Party of England and Wales202000−£34bn2 of 2
Liberal Democrats202000+£23bn2 of 2
Plaid Cymru201001+£0.4bn0 of 2
Reform UK202000+£31bn2 of 2
Scottish National Party211 by others1000+£2.8bn1 of 2
Natural England101000not costed0 of 1

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How the numbers work

Every number comes from one of 24 official sources, or is worked out from them, and says which.

Ranges, not points

Every result shows low, central and high. Tax levers use HMRC's costings, which include how taxpayers respond but not knock-on effects on the wider economy.

Every number has a label

  • Sourced
  • Estimate
  • Modelled
  • To check

Hover over or focus a number to see how it was made and where it comes from.

Checked against what happened

Every forecast shown here is recorded, and scored when the official outturn arrives, misses included.

How the numbers are madeForecasts against outturnOpen data API

Questions

What is Public Ledger?

An open profit-and-loss account of the UK state. It shows where public money comes from (taxes, other income and borrowing), where it goes, and what political promises would cost and who would pay.

Where do the numbers come from?

From official publications: ONS public sector finances, OBR forecasts, HM Treasury spending statistics, HMRC tax costings, DWP benefit statistics, GOV.UK tax rates and the Bank of England. Every number links to its source and the date of the release it came from.

Is the sandbox a forecast?

No. It shows the first-year effect of a change as a range, using official costings. Real outcomes depend on how people and the economy respond, so results are ranges, never single numbers.

How is a promise's status decided?

By one published standard, the same for every party. A status changes only on evidence: a plan, a bill, money in a budget, or delivery. The full history of each card is kept, including any rewording of the promise.

Who checks the cards?

Every card is re-read against its live sources by AI Journalist, our automated reviewer: the quote word for word, the dates, the evidence, the status, the cost, neutral wording and legal risk. Anything it finds is fixed in public as a dated correction on the card. Human editors review each card next; nothing a reader sends in is published until two editors agree.

Do I need an account?

No. Reading, using the sandbox and sharing a scenario never need an account. You can follow a promise by RSS, email or Telegram without one.

Is my salary sent anywhere?

No. The "your share" calculator runs in your browser. What you type is never sent or stored.

Can I send in a promise or evidence?

Yes, with the form on this page. Editors check every submission against the original source, and nothing is published until two editors agree.