“We will meet the fiscal rules. And Andy Burnham and I have talked about how we will do that in lockstep, ensuring there’s a buffer also for uncertainty.”

Where it stands

The test comes at the Budget on 28 October 2026, when the OBR judges whether the government's plans meet the rules in the Charter for Budget Responsibility. The Prime Minister repeated the commitment at Prime Minister's Questions on 2 September 2026, describing the debt rule as debt falling "by the end of the Parliament"; the Charter sets 2029-30.

What has happened

1. Jul 2026The Chancellor tells Treasury staff the government will meet the fiscal rules, with a buffer for uncertainty, Promised
2. Oct 2026The Budget, and the OBR's assessment of the fiscal rules, Deadline

About the cost

No cost of its own: the pledge is about the overall balance of the public finances, not a tax or spending measure. For scale, at Budget 2025 the OBR judged the stability rule met in 2029-30 by £21.7bn and the investment rule by £24.4bn. The OBR's forecast on 28 October 2026 is the next test.

• HM Treasury: Budget 2025 (26 Nov 2025)

More detail

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