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Budget day Wednesday 28 October · predictions close at 12:30 GMT, when the statement starts

Predict the Autumn Budget 2026

10 questions on what the Chancellor will announce. Pick what you think will happen, see how everyone else predicted, and share yours. After the Budget we check every answer against the Budget documents.

No account. We keep your answers and a random code for your link, nothing about you.

1 of 10 · Income tax ratesWill the Budget raise any of the three main rates of income tax (20%, 40% and 45%)?
Yes, at least one goes upNo, none goes up
Why we ask, and what settles it
The main rates on earnings and pensions in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are 20%, 40% and 45% in 2026-27. Labour's 2024 manifesto promised not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT on working people. On 7 September the Chancellor, John Healey, said the government keeps that promise, and would not otherwise speculate on tax. Rises already announced for income from savings, dividends and property do not count here, and nor do Scotland's own rates.
Settled by: The overview of tax legislation and rates published with the Budget (income tax rates), and the Budget report's table of policy decisions. A rise announced for any later year counts.
Sources: HM Treasury: Budget 2025, overview of tax rates, Annex A (Nov 2025) · City AM: Healey bats away tax questions (7 Sep 2026)
2 of 10 · Tax-free allowanceWill the Budget raise the personal allowance (£12,570), the income you can have before paying income tax, for any year before April 2031?
Yes, it goes upNo, the freeze stays
Why we ask, and what settles it
The personal allowance has been £12,570 since April 2021. The November 2025 Budget kept it, with the other income tax thresholds, at that level until April 2031. On 20 July, as he became Prime Minister, Andy Burnham said the allowance would be looked at in the Budget, but that a change would be difficult given the public finances.
Settled by: The overview of tax legislation and rates (income tax allowances) and the Budget report's table of policy decisions. A rise for any tax year up to and including 2030-31 counts.
Sources: HM Treasury: Budget 2025, section 3.2 (Nov 2025) · Professional Adviser: Burnham on the personal allowance (22 Jul 2026)
3 of 10 · National InsuranceWill the Budget change the main rate of National Insurance for employees (8%) or for employers (15%)?
Yes, at least one changesNo, both stay the same
Why we ask, and what settles it
Employees pay 8% on earnings between £242 and £967 a week. Employers pay 15% above £96 a week, a rate raised from 13.8% in April 2025. The government has said it keeps its promise not to raise National Insurance on working people. Tax Policy Associates, a research group, has argued that a 1p cut in the employees' rate would help most workers more than a higher personal allowance.
Settled by: The overview of tax legislation and rates (Class 1 National Insurance rates). A change up or down, announced for any later year, counts.
Sources: HM Treasury: Budget 2025, overview of tax rates, Annex A (Nov 2025) · Tax Policy Associates: cut National Insurance, not raise the allowance (21 Jul 2026)
4 of 10 · VAT on electricityWill the Budget keep the 0% rate of VAT on household electricity in Great Britain after 31 March 2027?
Yes, it lasts longerNo, it ends as planned
Why we ask, and what settles it
From 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, household electricity in England, Scotland and Wales carries no VAT instead of the usual 5%; gas is unchanged. Andy Burnham announced it on 21 July, his second day as Prime Minister, and said that anything further would be decided at the Budget.
Settled by: The Budget report's table of policy decisions and the overview of tax legislation and rates (VAT). Any extension past 31 March 2027 counts, however short.
Sources: HMRC: temporary zero rate of VAT for domestic electricity (8 Sep 2026) · MoneySavingExpert: VAT cut on electricity bills (22 Jul 2026)
5 of 10 · Fuel dutyWhat will fuel duty on petrol and diesel be on 1 January 2027? It is 52.95p a litre now, and the law says it rises to 55.95p then.
52.95p or less: no riseMore than 52.95p but less than 55.95p55.95p or more
Why we ask, and what settles it
A 5p cut in fuel duty has applied since March 2022. Extended several times, it now runs to 31 December 2026, with the rate due to rise to 55.95p on 1 January and to 57.95p on 1 March 2027. HMRC says the government will confirm the final rates at this Budget. In September the Chancellor said he was conscious of the pressure a rise would put on people.
Settled by: The fuel duty rates in the overview of tax legislation and rates: the main rate for petrol and diesel from 1 January 2027.
Sources: HMRC: amended fuel duty rates 2026 to 2027 (22 May 2026) · Reuters: options for Healey's 28 October Budget (7 Oct 2026, republished)
6 of 10 · Capital gains taxWhat will the top main rate of capital gains tax be once the Budget's changes apply? It is 24% now.
Lower than 24%24%, no changeAbove 24% but below 40%40% or more
Why we ask, and what settles it
Gains on assets such as shares and second homes are taxed at 18% within the basic-rate band and 24% above it. Taxing gains at the same rates as income (20%, 40% and 45%) has been widely discussed before this Budget; the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation estimates it could raise about £14bn a year. HMRC's own estimates show that large rises can raise less, or lose money, because people sell fewer assets.
Settled by: The capital gains tax rates in the overview of tax legislation and rates, and the Budget report's table of policy decisions: the highest main rate, from whatever date the Budget sets. Carried interest, taxed under its own rules, does not count.
Sources: HM Treasury: Budget 2025, overview of tax rates, Annex A (Nov 2025) · City AM: which taxes will Burnham and Healey raise? (25 Aug 2026) · HMRC: direct effects of illustrative tax changes (Jan 2025)
7 of 10 · Tax rises in totalTaken together, how much more tax will the Budget's measures raise in 2029-30?
Nothing more: no net rise, or a net cutLess than £5bn£5bn to less than £15bn£15bn to less than £25bn£25bn or more
Why we ask, and what settles it
By the Office for Budget Responsibility's count, the November 2025 Budget's tax measures raise £26bn in 2029-30. Since then forecasters say higher borrowing costs have squeezed the public finances, and Reuters expects some tax rises at this Budget. The government has also promised not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT on working people.
Settled by: The OBR's Economic and fiscal outlook published with the Budget: the net effect of the Budget's tax measures on receipts in 2029-30, in its chapter on policy measures (the Budget report shows the same measures).
Sources: OBR: Economic and fiscal outlook, paragraph 1.17 (Nov 2025) · Reuters: options for Healey's 28 October Budget (7 Oct 2026, republished)
8 of 10 · Day-to-day budgetWhat will the OBR forecast for the current budget in 2029-30: taxes minus day-to-day spending?
A deficitA surplus of less than £10bnA surplus of £10bn to less than £20bnA surplus of £20bn to less than £30bnA surplus of £30bn or more
Why we ask, and what settles it
The government's main fiscal rule is that taxes cover day-to-day spending, so that it borrows only to invest; at this Budget it is judged on 2029-30. The OBR forecast a surplus that year of £21.7bn in November 2025 and £24bn in March 2026. The Resolution Foundation says higher debt interest could add £10bn to £15bn to borrowing in 2029-30. The Chancellor has said he will keep to the fiscal rules with a buffer.
Settled by: The OBR's Economic and fiscal outlook published with the Budget: its central forecast of the current budget balance in 2029-30, in £ billion, as the OBR publishes it.
Sources: OBR: Economic and fiscal outlook (3 Mar 2026) · Resolution Foundation: Healey faces Budget balancing act (22 Sep 2026) · HM Treasury: Chancellor's letter on the Budget date (31 Jul 2026)
9 of 10 · Defence spendingWill the Budget set a year by which defence spending reaches 3% of GDP?
Yes, it names a yearNo year is named
Why we ask, and what settles it
John Healey resigned as Defence Secretary in June, saying the government lacked ambition on defence spending, and had called for 3% of GDP by 2030. LBC reported on 29 August that as Chancellor he will not commit to a date in this Budget: the Treasury says the next spending review is the place to set one, and the Budget's priority is to fund the existing defence investment plan.
Settled by: The Budget report. It counts if the documents name a year for spending 3% of GDP on defence; an ambition with no year, or a year for another level, does not.
Sources: LBC: Healey will not commit to 3% by 2030 in the Budget (29 Aug 2026)
10 of 10 · Tax on banksWill the Budget raise the bank surcharge, the extra corporation tax on banks' profits, above 3%?
Yes, it goes upNo, it stays at 3% or less
Why we ask, and what settles it
Banks pay corporation tax at 25% plus a surcharge of 3% on profits above £100m, cut from 8% in April 2023. Several opposition parties and trade unions have called for higher taxes on banks; bank chiefs have warned against it. Reuters reported in October that bank bosses left a meeting with the Chancellor unsure of his plans.
Settled by: The overview of tax legislation and rates (bank surcharge) and the Budget report's table of policy decisions. A new or larger levy of another kind on banks does not count.
Sources: HM Treasury: Budget 2025, overview of tax rates, Annex A (Nov 2025) · City AM: which taxes will Burnham and Healey raise? (25 Aug 2026) · Reuters: options for Healey's 28 October Budget (7 Oct 2026, republished)

0 of 10 answered

Open until 12:30 GMT on Wednesday 28 October. Privacy

How it works

Every question is about something the Budget documents will settle without argument: a tax rate in the overview of tax rates, a measure in the Budget report's table of policy decisions, or a figure in the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast. Each one says why it is asked, with sources, and which document settles it. Predictions close at 12:30 GMT on 28 October, when the Chancellor stands up.

The same evening editors start reading the documents, as they do for every promise the Budget can move. Two editors record each answer with a link to the page that shows it, and every set of predictions gets its score.

Questions

What is this?

A game of foresight about the Autumn Budget 2026. Each question asks what the Budget will contain, not what it should, and has a fixed set of answers that the Budget documents settle. It is not an opinion poll, and the readers who play are not a representative sample.

Who decides the right answers?

The Budget documents themselves: the Budget report, the overview of tax rates and the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast, published straight after the statement. Two editors record each answer with a link to the page that shows it, and every set of predictions is then scored against them.

What do you keep about me?

Nothing about you: a random code for your link, your answers and the hour you sent them. No name, email, IP address or cookie. They are deleted 13 months after you make them.

Can I see how other people predicted?

Yes, once you have sent yours, if at least 50 people have predicted, so a small crowd reveals nobody. After predictions close at 12:30 GMT on 28 October, everyone can see the totals.

Can I change my answers?

Not once they are sent: a prediction counts from the moment it is made.

Are the questions neutral?

Each asks what the government will do, in plain words, with every outcome as a possible answer and no answer marked as good or bad. Editors check them under the site's one standard for every party, and each question says why it is asked and which document will settle it.