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LedgerGov.UK

Pay for it

Every promise has a price tag. Pick one, then decide how to pay for it: raise a tax, cut spending, or borrow. The sums are done as you choose.

Every promise we track that has a yearly cost to the public purse, from any party.

Cap bus fares at £2

“I’ve done it before and I will do it again now: a £2 cap on bus fares for millions across the country.”

Andy Burnham, Labour. Status: in plan

Costs a year
£0.4bn
range £0.36bn to £0.44bn
Sourced

Central figure: Department for Transport (official)

about £14 per household, 0.03% of all spending

Sourced: households, ONSSourcedONS Families and households, UK, 2025 (FH-2026-04).ONS Families and households in the UK
How it would be paid for, as announcedAn extra £454m (including funding for devolved governments) from a reprioritisation of DESNZ’s budget, switching funding that had been set aside for international climate finance projects into loans
About the cost

Year shown: 2027, the only year of the cap (1 January to 31 December 2027); central figure only. The government says the cap is backed by £400m of extra funding. Its press release puts the total at £454m including funding for the devolved governments, paid through the Barnett formula. Neither source says whether the £400m is the full cost of the cap or the extra over the £3 cap it replaces, and no independent costing has been published. Low–high is an editorial ±10% because the source gives a central figure only.

Read the promise card

How to pay for it

Pay for all of it with

Borrowing up £0.4bn a year, range +£0.36bn to +£0.44bn.

Raise a tax

Share of the cost

No tax rises.

Sourced: HMRC's figureSourcedHMRC direct effect of 1p on the basic rate of income tax: 6.9bn in 2026-27, 8.2bn by 2028-29 (HMRC-DE-2025-06). Low–high is an editorial ±10% because HMRC publishes a central figure only. HMRC includes taxpayers' own behavioural response where it models one, but no wider economic effects.HMRC: Direct effects of illustrative tax changes

Set by the government.

Cut spending

Share of the cost

No spending is cut.

Sourced: the StatementSourcedThe areas of spending a cut can come from, added up: every line but debt interest and accounting adjustments.HM Treasury Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA) / Public Spending Statistics

Set by the government.

Borrow

All of the cost is borrowed: £0.4bn a year, in the centre.

Sourced: Bank RateSourcedTaken from an official release, linked.Official Bank Rate (IADB series IUDBEDR) and MPC dates

Set by the government. The interest on it follows Bank Rate, set by the Bank of England, and the markets.

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Link: https://ledgergov.uk/pay-for-it/uk-bus-cap-2-2026/borrow

How it works

The cost

Each pledge's yearly cost comes from its promise card: the central figure, who made it (a government department, the party itself or an independent body) and a range. Where the source gives one figure, the card adds our usual editorial band and says so.

A tax

HMRC publishes what 1p on income tax or National Insurance, or 1 point on VAT or corporation tax, raises in a year. Its figure for 2026-27, from the edition published 24 Jun 2025, is the one on our tax cards. We divide your share of the cost by it to get the change needed, often a fraction of a penny. Capital gains tax is left out: HMRC says its figures cannot be scaled, and a rise raises little or loses money in its first year.

A cut

A cut comes from one area of spending in the Statement for 2025-26, the latest full year, or from every area by the same share. Debt interest is left out, because it follows interest rates and the size of the debt, and so are accounting adjustments, which are not a service.

Borrowing

Whatever a tax or a cut does not pay is borrowed. Borrowing is what the state spends less what it takes in, so the Statement balances in every plan: income plus borrowing equals spending.

Ranges

The pledge's cost and the tax's yield are each uncertain, so the change in borrowing runs from the cheapest pledge with the best yield to the dearest with the worst. A cut is a decision about money already counted, so it is exact.

Questions

Is this what the government will do?

No. It is a what-if: one pledge, paid for one way, on official figures. A real Budget pays for many things at once and the Office for Budget Responsibility checks the sums. Where a pledge said how it would be paid for, the page shows that too.

Why does a tax need only a fraction of a penny?

Because a penny on a big tax raises billions. HMRC's figure for 1p on the basic rate of income tax is several billion pounds a year, so a pledge costing a few hundred million needs a small fraction of that. Tax rates are usually set in whole pence; the fraction shows the scale.

Why does borrowing still show a range when the pledge is paid for in full?

The pledge's cost and the tax's yield are both estimates. If the pledge costs more than expected and the tax raises less, the gap is borrowed; the other way round, borrowing falls. The range shows both ends.

Which pledges are here?

Every promise card with a yearly cost to the public purse, from any party, in government or not, under the same rules. Pledges that raise money, such as a new tax, are not listed, because they need no paying for. They are on the promise ledger.

Does a tax rise or a cut change how the economy behaves?

HMRC's figures include how taxpayers respond, such as reporting less income, but not wider effects on prices, jobs or growth. Cuts are counted pound for pound. The sandbox on the home page shows rough effects on prices and growth, as wide ranges.

Who decides each of these?

Taxes, spending and borrowing are decided by the government and voted through by Parliament. The interest on borrowing depends on Bank Rate, which the Bank of England sets, and on the markets.

Every pledge is a promise card; try several changes together in the sandbox, see what each tax change raises, and how the numbers are made.