Autumn Budget 2025, 26 Nov 2025: last year's Budget
Autumn Budget 2025: what it did to households
Who gains and who loses from the Autumn Budget 2025's changes to taxes and benefits, for the whole country by income and for six example households, before and after. We lead with 2027-28, the first full year of most of the measures, with 2026-27 beside it.
A rehearsal, on last year's Budget
This page shows the Autumn Budget 2025 of 26 Nov 2025, worked out on 12 Oct 2026 in exactly the way we will work out the Autumn Budget 2026 on the morning after it. It is not this year's Budget. We checked it against PolicyEngine's own analysis of Autumn Budget 2025: where the inputs are the same, the money raised and spent agrees closely; how the gains spread across incomes differs, mostly because the model now ranks households differently (see Questions).
Summary
- Households better off in 2027-28
- 18%
- range 16% to 19%
- Worse off
- 14%
- range 12% to 15%
- Lowest incomes, tenth 1
- +0.25%
- +£40 a year per household
- Highest incomes, tenth 10
- −0.21%
- −£388 a year per household
In 2027-28 the measures we can model costs £1.0bn a year for the public finances (range £0.9bn to £1.1bn), before anyone changes what they do. In 2026-27: 32% of households better off, 6% worse off. Ranges are ±10% around PolicyEngine's single estimate.
Change in income, by income tenth
Average change in household income after tax and benefits, as a share of that income. Households are ranked by that income as it is, not adjusted for household size, and each tenth holds a tenth of the people: a large family on a modest income can sit in a middle tenth. Whiskers show the range.
2027-28
2026-27
Show as tableHide table
| Income tenth | 2027-28 | Range | £ a year | 2026-27 | £ a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (lowest) | +0.25% | +0.22% to +0.27% | +£40 | +0.69% | +£109 |
| 2 | +0.18% | +0.16% to +0.19% | +£52 | +0.30% | +£88 |
| 3 | +0.17% | +0.15% to +0.19% | +£65 | +0.27% | +£103 |
| 4 | +0.53% | +0.48% to +0.58% | +£244 | +0.57% | +£259 |
| 5 | +0.36% | +0.32% to +0.39% | +£191 | +0.41% | +£215 |
| 6 | +0.16% | +0.15% to +0.18% | +£100 | +0.32% | +£193 |
| 7 | +0.04% | +0.04% to +0.04% | +£28 | +0.18% | +£130 |
| 8 | −0.05% | −0.05% to −0.04% | −£39 | +0.11% | +£91 |
| 9 | −0.22% | −0.24% to −0.19% | −£228 | −0.01% | −£15 |
| 10 (highest) | −0.21% | −0.23% to −0.18% | −£388 | −0.05% | −£90 |
Who gains and who loses, 2027-28
The share of households whose income after tax and benefits goes up or down, and by how much, for everyone and within each income tenth.
Share of households that gain or lose
All households (central estimates: read each share as ±10%)
- Gain more than 5%4.1%
- Gain less than 5%13.5%
- No change68.9%
- Lose less than 5%13.5%
- Lose more than 5%0.1%
By income decile
Six example households, before and after
Income after tax and benefits in 2027-28, without the Autumn Budget 2025 and with it. The households are fixed and the same for everyone: in England, earnings held the same each year, and spending what the Office for National Statistics finds a similar household spends, so changes to VAT and fuel duty reach them. Benefits are claimed where due.
Single adult earning £25,000
+£8 a year in 2027-28
range +£7 to +£9; £21,036 without, £21,044 with
2026-27: +£20
Single adult earning £45,000
+£10 a year in 2027-28
range +£9 to +£11; £35,352 without, £35,362 with
2026-27: +£25
Single adult earning £120,000
+£8 a year in 2027-28
range +£7 to +£9; £75,635 without, £75,642 with
2026-27: +£20
Couple earning £35,000 and £15,000, two children
+£19 a year in 2027-28
range +£17 to +£21; £44,515 without, £44,535 with
2026-27: +£51
Lone parent earning £18,000, one child
+£6 a year in 2027-28
range +£5 to +£7; £22,196 without, £22,202 with
2026-27: +£16
Pensioner couple on the state pension
+£7 a year in 2027-28
range +£7 to +£8; £25,550 without, £25,557 with
2026-27: +£19
| Household | Without, 2027-28 | With | Change a year | Change in 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single adult earning £25,000 | £21,036 | £21,044 | +£8+£7 to +£9 | +£20 |
| Single adult earning £45,000 | £35,352 | £35,362 | +£10+£9 to +£11 | +£25 |
| Single adult earning £120,000 | £75,635 | £75,642 | +£8+£7 to +£9 | +£20 |
| Couple earning £35,000 and £15,000, two children | £44,515 | £44,535 | +£19+£17 to +£21 | +£51 |
| Lone parent earning £18,000, one child | £22,196 | £22,202 | +£6+£5 to +£7 | +£16 |
| Pensioner couple on the state pension | £25,550 | £25,557 | +£7+£7 to +£8 | +£19 |
Your income tax and National Insurance
What the Autumn Budget 2025's changes to income tax and employees' National Insurance mean on your own salary, worked out in your browser.
Type a salary to see your income tax and National Insurance in 2028-29, without and with the Autumn Budget 2025.
Worked out in your browser: what you type is never sent or stored. For an employee in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, on a salary alone, at the rates the Autumn Budget 2025 sets; not tax advice.
The measures
Each measure links to the page of the document that announced it. “Without” is what would have applied had the Budget not happened.
In the estimate (9)
Remove the two-child limit in Universal Credit from April 2026
From 6 Apr 2026. Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 94, its line in the Treasury's table
What changes
- Children the Universal Credit child element is paid for: 2026-27 2 → no limit; 2027-28 2 → no limit; 2028-29 2 → no limit; 2029-30 2 → no limit; 2030-31 2 → no limit
- Children Child Tax Credit is paid for (legacy claims): 2026-27 2 → no limit; 2027-28 2 → no limit; 2028-29 2 → no limit; 2029-30 2 → no limit; 2030-31 2 → no limit
Keep the 5p cut in fuel duty to August 2026, then bring it back in three steps
From 23 Mar 2026. Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 93, its line in the Treasury's table
What changes
- Main rate of fuel duty, £ a litre, averaged over the year: 2026-27 58p → 53.45p; 2027-28 61p → 59.25p; 2028-29 63p → 61.51p; 2029-30 64p → 63.32p; 2030-31 66p → 65.16p
Keep income tax and National Insurance thresholds frozen for three more years, to April 2031
From 6 Apr 2028. Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 97, its line in the Treasury's table
What changes
- Personal allowance, £ a year: 2028-29 £12,830 → £12,570; 2029-30 £13,090 → £12,570; 2030-31 £13,360 → £12,570
- Basic rate band (taxable income at which the higher rate starts), £ a year: 2028-29 £38,500 → £37,700; 2029-30 £39,300 → £37,700; 2030-31 £40,100 → £37,700
- National Insurance primary threshold, £ a week (the personal allowance ÷ 52): 2028-29 £246.73 → £241.73; 2029-30 £251.73 → £241.73; 2030-31 £256.92 → £241.73
- National Insurance upper earnings limit, £ a week (the higher rate threshold ÷ 52): 2028-29 £987.12 → £966.73; 2029-30 £1,007.50 → £966.73; 2030-31 £1,028.08 → £966.73
- Self-employed lower profits limit, £ a year (the personal allowance): 2028-29 £12,830 → £12,570; 2029-30 £13,090 → £12,570; 2030-31 £13,360 → £12,570
- Self-employed upper profits limit, £ a year (the higher rate threshold): 2028-29 £51,330 → £50,270; 2029-30 £52,390 → £50,270; 2030-31 £53,460 → £50,270
Without the Budget the freeze would have ended in April 2028. The allowance and the basic rate band would then have risen with September's CPI, rounded up to the next £10 and £100 as the law requires, using the OBR's forecast of 2% a year; the National Insurance thresholds stay aligned with them.
Keep employers' National Insurance threshold at £5,000 to April 2031
From 6 Apr 2028. Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 97, its line in the Treasury's table
What changes
- Employers' secondary threshold, £ a week: 2028-29 £98.08 → £96; 2029-30 £100.04 → £96; 2030-31 £102.04 → £96
PolicyEngine counts employers' National Insurance as paid by their employees, through lower pay (gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence is 1), so this measure lowers household incomes; the Treasury counts it as a tax on business.
Raise the tax rates on dividends by 2 points from April 2026
From 6 Apr 2026. Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 97, its line in the Treasury's table
What changes
- Dividend ordinary rate: 2026-27 8.75% → 10.75%; 2027-28 8.75% → 10.75%; 2028-29 8.75% → 10.75%; 2029-30 8.75% → 10.75%; 2030-31 8.75% → 10.75%
- Dividend upper rate: 2026-27 33.75% → 35.75%; 2027-28 33.75% → 35.75%; 2028-29 33.75% → 35.75%; 2029-30 33.75% → 35.75%; 2030-31 33.75% → 35.75%
Raise the tax rates on savings income by 2 points from April 2027
From 6 Apr 2027. Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 98, its line in the Treasury's table
What changes
- Savings basic rate: 2027-28 20% → 22%; 2028-29 20% → 22%; 2029-30 20% → 22%; 2030-31 20% → 22%
- Savings higher rate: 2027-28 40% → 42%; 2028-29 40% → 42%; 2029-30 40% → 42%; 2030-31 40% → 42%
- Savings additional rate: 2027-28 45% → 47%; 2028-29 45% → 47%; 2029-30 45% → 47%; 2030-31 45% → 47%
Tax property income at its own rates, 2 points higher, from April 2027
From 6 Apr 2027. Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 97, its line in the Treasury's table
What changes
- Property basic rate: 2027-28 20% → 22%; 2028-29 20% → 22%; 2029-30 20% → 22%; 2030-31 20% → 22%
- Property higher rate: 2027-28 40% → 42%; 2028-29 40% → 42%; 2029-30 40% → 42%; 2030-31 40% → 42%
- Property additional rate: 2027-28 45% → 47%; 2028-29 45% → 47%; 2029-30 45% → 47%; 2030-31 45% → 47%
Charge National Insurance on salary-sacrificed pension contributions above £2,000 a year from April 2029
From 6 Apr 2029. Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 98, its line in the Treasury's table
What changes
- Salary-sacrificed pension contributions free of National Insurance, £ a year: 2029-30 no limit → £2,000; 2030-31 no limit → £2,000
A council tax surcharge on homes in England worth over £2 million, from April 2028
From 1 Apr 2028. Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 98, its line in the Treasury's table
What changes
- Surcharge for homes worth £2 million to £2.5 million, £ a year: 2028-29 £0 → £2,500; 2029-30 £0 → £2,550; 2030-31 £0 → £2,600.99
- Surcharge for homes worth £2.5 million to £3.5 million, £ a year: 2028-29 £0 → £3,500; 2029-30 £0 → £3,570; 2030-31 £0 → £3,641.39
- Surcharge for homes worth £3.5 million to £5 million, £ a year: 2028-29 £0 → £5,000; 2029-30 £0 → £5,100; 2030-31 £0 → £5,201.98
- Surcharge for homes worth over £5 million, £ a year: 2028-29 £0 → £7,500; 2029-30 £0 → £7,649.99; 2030-31 £0 → £7,802.98
PolicyEngine estimates which households own such homes from survey data on property values; the surcharge rises with CPI from April 2029.
Not in the estimate (4)
Freeze rail fares in England for a year from March 2026
Needs modelling beyond the public model
PolicyEngine has no rail fare rules a policy can change; its own analysis adds the Treasury's cost (£145 million in 2026-27) to households in proportion to their spending on rail, in extra code.
Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 93, its line in the Treasury's table
Freeze the Plan 2 student loan repayment threshold for three years from April 2027
Needs modelling beyond the public model
PolicyEngine's public model takes student loan repayments as the survey records them, so a new threshold changes nothing without extra code (its own analysis adds it). The Treasury scores about £0.3 billion a year from 2027-28, paid by graduates earning above the threshold.
Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 97, its line in the Treasury's table
Keep inheritance tax thresholds frozen for a further year, to April 2031
Not in the model
PolicyEngine UK does not model inheritance tax, which falls on estates rather than on a household's yearly income.
Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 98, its line in the Treasury's table
A mileage charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028
A new tax
A new tax, so the model has no rules for it. The Treasury expects it to raise £1.1 billion in 2028-29.
Budget 2025 (HC 1492), page 99, its line in the Treasury's table
Two measures announced before the Budget and only scored in its table are left out, as they were not decisions of this Budget: Winter Fuel Payment for pensioners with taxable income up to £35,000 (line 84) and the Universal Credit standard allowance and health element changes (line 85).
The Treasury's own chart, 2028-29
HM Treasury publishes its own estimate with every Budget. It counts every tax, welfare and public spending decision since Autumn Budget 2024, not only this Budget's, in 2028-29, including the value of public services households use. Its figures are official; it gives no range.
Why the two differ: The Treasury's chart is for 2028-29, counts every decision since Autumn Budget 2024 rather than this Budget's alone, and adds the value of public services; ours counts only this Budget's tax and benefit measures that PolicyEngine can model, in cash, for each year.
Taxes and welfare, in cash
With the value of public services added
Show as tableHide table
| Income tenth | Tax | Welfare | Public services | Overall | Overall, £ a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (lowest) | −0.94% | +3.03% | +5.14% | +7.24% | +£1,121 |
| 2 | −0.73% | +1.73% | +4.41% | +5.41% | +£1,362 |
| 3 | −0.74% | +0.94% | +4.21% | +4.41% | +£1,343 |
| 4 | −0.78% | +0.46% | +3.58% | +3.25% | +£1,156 |
| 5 | −0.80% | +0.14% | +2.97% | +2.31% | +£972 |
| 6 | −0.81% | +0.10% | +2.39% | +1.69% | +£804 |
| 7 | −0.82% | +0.04% | +2.06% | +1.27% | +£686 |
| 8 | −0.98% | +0.05% | +1.57% | +0.65% | +£411 |
| 9 | −1.23% | +0.06% | +1.26% | +0.08% | +£62 |
| 10 (highest) | −1.65% | +0.05% | +0.73% | −0.87% | −£1,051 |
| All households | −1.09% | +0.32% | +2.11% | +1.35% | +£691 |
Source: HM Treasury, Impact of decisions from Autumn Budget 2024 onwards on households in 2028-29, as a percentage of net income, by income decile, Open Government Licence v3.0. The Treasury publishes no table of these figures; we read them from the chart's drawing in the PDF, to about a hundredth of a point.
How it works
Editors type each measure from the Budget documents, every figure with its page: the value in each year without the Budget, and with it. We send the two complete sets of rules to PolicyEngine, a charity whose open-source model of UK taxes and benefits runs them over a large survey of households that represents the country (the Family Resources Survey, reweighted by PolicyEngine). It works out every household's income both ways and adds up the differences by income tenth.
It is a static estimate: nobody changes their work, spending or savings because of the Budget. PolicyEngine gives one figure for each result; we show it with a ±10% range and label it an estimate. It is not an official figure and not advice about anyone's own taxes.
We asked PolicyEngine once, on 12 Oct 2026, not each time someone opens the page, and nothing about readers is ever sent. Every answer came from one version of the model: PolicyEngine UK 2.102.3, data policyengine-uk-data-1.56.16. Two editors checked the measures before this page was published. You can open the same comparison in PolicyEngine's own app, or read the measures file and our method.
What Autumn Budget 2026 could do to the government's promises
Questions
Is this the government's own figure?
No. It is our estimate, made with PolicyEngine UK, an open-source model of the UK's taxes and benefits run by the charity PolicyEngine. The Treasury publishes its own analysis with every Budget; its chart is on this page, beside ours. Neither is advice about your own taxes.
Why does it differ from the Treasury's chart?
The Treasury's chart is for 2028-29, counts every decision since Autumn Budget 2024 rather than this Budget's alone, and adds the value of public services; ours counts only this Budget's tax and benefit measures that PolicyEngine can model, in cash, for each year. The Treasury also adjusts each household's income for its size before ranking; PolicyEngine's public model ranks households by their income as it is.
What is an income tenth?
Households are ranked by their income after tax and benefits and split into ten groups, each holding a tenth of the people. The first tenth has the lowest incomes. Income is not adjusted for household size, so a large family on a modest income can sit in a middle tenth.
Why are some measures missing?
The model can change only the rules it already has. A new tax, a tax it does not model (inheritance tax, corporation tax, business rates) or a change that needs more than new rates and thresholds is listed under “Not in the estimate”, with the reason.
Why lead with 2027-28?
Most measures in a Budget take effect the following April, so 2027-28 is the first full year of most of them. 2026-27 is shown beside it.
Is anything about me sent anywhere?
No. The six example households are fixed and the same for everyone, and the estimate was worked out once, before this page was published. Nothing you do on this page is sent to PolicyEngine.