HMRC's estimate · edition published 24 Jun 2025
What a rise in capital gains tax raises
Capital gains tax is paid on the profit from selling assets such as shares or a second home. The higher rate, paid by higher-rate taxpayers, is 24% now, and the lower rate 18%. HMRC costs only a few sizes of rise in each, shown below.
Higher rate, 24% now
Where these figures come fromSourcedHMRC's estimates for raising the higher rate of capital gains tax, with the change made at the start of 2026-27 (HMRC-DE-2025-06). +1 point: −£15m in 2026-27, −£30m in 2028-29; +5 points: −£170m in 2026-27, −£870m in 2028-29; +10 points: −£540m in 2026-27, −£3,565m in 2028-29. A minus means the Treasury collects less: HMRC's figures allow for people selling fewer assets when the rate rises. These are HMRC's only steps (+1, +5, +10 points), so the sandbox offers no others and never scales or blends them: HMRC says its capital gains tax figures “are also non-linear and so cannot be scaled up”. Taxing these gains at the higher rate of income tax (40% in England, Wales and Northern Ireland) would need a rise of 16 points, bigger than any HMRC estimates. Starting rate 24%, the rate for 2026-27 (GOV.UK). Low–high is an editorial ±10% because HMRC publishes a central figure only. HMRC includes taxpayers' own behavioural response where it models one, but no wider economic effects.HMRC: Direct effects of illustrative tax changes| Rise | 2026-27 | 2028-29 | Sandbox |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 point24% to 25% | −£15m−£17m to −£14m | −£30m−£33m to −£27m | Try it: higher rate 24% to 25% in the sandbox |
| +5 points24% to 29% | −£170m−£187m to −£153m | −£870m−£957m to −£783m | Try it: higher rate 24% to 29% in the sandbox |
| +10 points24% to 34% | −£540m−£594m to −£486m | −£3,565m−£3.9bn to −£3.2bn | Try it: higher rate 24% to 34% in the sandbox |
Lower rate, 18% now
Where these figures come fromSourcedHMRC's estimates for raising the lower rate of capital gains tax, with the change made at the start of 2026-27 (HMRC-DE-2025-06). +1 point: −£5m in 2026-27, +£5m in 2028-29; +5 points: −£40m in 2026-27, −£10m in 2028-29; +10 points: −£130m in 2026-27, −£135m in 2028-29. A minus means the Treasury collects less: HMRC's figures allow for people selling fewer assets when the rate rises. These are HMRC's only steps (+1, +5, +10 points), so the sandbox offers no others and never scales or blends them: HMRC says its capital gains tax figures “are also non-linear and so cannot be scaled up”. Taxing these gains at the basic rate of income tax (20% in England, Wales and Northern Ireland) would need a rise of 2 points, which is not one of HMRC's steps. Starting rate 18%, the rate for 2026-27 (GOV.UK). Low–high is an editorial ±10% because HMRC publishes a central figure only. HMRC includes taxpayers' own behavioural response where it models one, but no wider economic effects.HMRC: Direct effects of illustrative tax changes| Rise | 2026-27 | 2028-29 | Sandbox |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 point18% to 19% | −£5m−£5.5m to −£4.5m | £5m£4.5m to £5.5m | Try it: lower rate 18% to 19% in the sandbox |
| +5 points18% to 23% | −£40m−£44m to −£36m | −£10m−£11m to −£9m | Try it: lower rate 18% to 23% in the sandbox |
| +10 points18% to 28% | −£130m−£143m to −£117m | −£135m−£149m to −£122m | Try it: lower rate 18% to 28% in the sandbox |
A minus is a net loss: HMRC expects less tax, not more, because people sell fewer assets.
HMRC's caveat. HMRC says these figures cannot be scaled: a bigger rise can raise less, or lose money, because people sell fewer assets. The effect also swings between years, as sales and the tax returns that report them fall in different years.
HMRC costs a rise only.
Quote this
HMRC estimates that raising capital gains tax by 1 point would lose £15m in 2026-27 and £30m in 2028-29 at the higher rate, 24% to 25%, and lose £5m in 2026-27 and raise £5m in 2028-29 at the lower rate, 18% to 19%. Source: HMRC, Direct effects of illustrative tax changes, edition published 24 Jun 2025. https://ledgergov.uk/tax/capital-gains-tax
Where this comes from
From HMRC's Direct effects of illustrative tax changes, the edition published 24 Jun 2025, the latest (on file as HMRC-DE-2025-06). HMRC's rows: “Increase higher Capital Gains Tax rate by 1 percentage point”; “Increase higher Capital Gains Tax rate by 5 percentage points”; “Increase higher Capital Gains Tax rate by 10 percentage points”; “Increase lower Capital Gains Tax rate by 1 percentage point”; “Increase lower Capital Gains Tax rate by 5 percentage points”; “Increase lower Capital Gains Tax rate by 10 percentage points”.
HMRC works out each figure for a change made at the start of 2026-27, on its own, on the official forecast of the time, and shows each year to 2028-29. It includes how taxpayers respond, where HMRC models it, but no wider effects on the economy. HMRC publishes one figure a year; we show a range of 10% either side of it, our usual band where a source gives none.
See how the numbers are made, or the Autumn Budget 2026 page.